Q2 2018 report

by Dr Iain Staffell – Imperial College London

This quarter we focus on the phase-out of coal at home and abroad, and the impacts of Britain’s heat wave on demand and renewables. 

Electricity generation from coal has again fallen to new lows in Britain, to the point where summer months are almost coal-free. However, growing consumption in Asia means that the global phase-out of coal is at a complete stand-still.

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by Dr Iain Staffell – Imperial College London 

So much for powering past coal. Thirty years ago, coal provided 38% of the world’s electricity. Today, it still provides 38%. 

This lack of movement on the global scale masks very different national trajectories (see charts, below). Progress in Europe and America is being counteracted by the rise of coal across Asia.

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For the third summer in a row, coal is edging closer to extinction in Britain, producing nothing for 12 days during June. Coal supplied just 1.3% of Britain’s electricity over the quarter, and its share fell below 1% for the first time in June.

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by Dr Iain Staffell – Imperial College London 

The UK has seen a remarkable reduction in carbon emissions from the power sector, but this rapid progress may be about to slow down.

For the last four years, emissions reductions have been in the range of 12–24% per year, thanks to gas replacing coal, and renewables (plus imports of French nuclear power) displacing fossil fuels. Such progress could never go on indefinitely, and three factors mean that future emissions reductions are likely to be tougher and much slower:

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by Dr Iain Staffell – Imperial College London 

16.5 degrees is the Goldilocks temperature for the Brits – not hot enough for air-con, not too cold to put the heating on. 

In March we saw how the Beast from the Eastcaused a surge in demand, now the long summer heat wave is doing the same. 

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by Dr Iain Staffell – Imperial College London 

Wind output fell by 60% between January and June, but Britain’s ‘wind drought’ was balanced out by a record-breaking summer for solar panels. 

Low wind output during the summer heat wave has been widely reported, as the high pressure sitting over the country has kept the skies calm.

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by Dr Iain Staffell – Imperial College London 

This quarter, low carbon sources produced 55% of Britain’s electricity and gas produced 41%.

Of the low-carbon sources, 50% was British nuclear and renewables, and 5% was French nuclear. 

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